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If, at any time before the proposed Consent Order is made final, the Commission determines that Sycamore is not an acceptable buyer, Respondents must immediately rescind the divestitures and divest the assets to a different buyer that receives the Commission's prior approval. The proposed Consent Order contains additional provisions to ensure the adequacy of the proposed relief. For example, Respondents have agreed to an Order to Maintain Assets that will be issued at the time the proposed Consent Order is accepted for public comment.

The Order to Maintain Assets requires Family Dollar to operate and maintain each divestiture store in the normal course of business through the date the store is ultimately divested to Sycamore. Because the divestiture schedule runs for an extended period of time, the proposed Consent Order appoints Gary Smith as a Monitor to oversee Respondents' compliance with the requirements of the proposed Consent Order and Order to Maintain Assets.

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Smith has the experience and skills to be an effective Monitor, no identifiable conflicts, and sufficient time to dedicate to this matter through its conclusion. The sole purpose of this Analysis is to facilitate public comment on the proposed Consent Order. This Analysis does not constitute an official interpretation of the proposed Consent Order, nor does it modify its terms in any way.

The Federal Trade Commission has accepted a proposed settlement to resolve the likely anticompetitive effects of Dollar Tree, Inc. Under the terms of the proposed consent order, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar are required to divest stores to a Commission-approved buyer. As we explain below, we believe the proposed divestitures preserve competition in the markets adversely affected by the acquisition and are therefore in the public interest.

Dollar Tree operates over 5, discount general merchandise retail stores across the United States under two banners which follow somewhat different business models. Family Dollar operates over 8, discount general merchandise retail stores. Dollar Tree and Family Dollar compete head-to-head in numerous local markets across the United States. They are close competitors in terms of format, pricing, customer service, product offerings, and location. In many local markets, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar operate stores in close proximity to each other, often representing the only or the majority of conveniently located discount general merchandise retail stores in a neighborhood.

To evaluate the likely competitive effects of this transaction and identify the local markets where it may likely harm competition, the Commission considered multiple sources of quantitative and qualitative evidence.


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As described in the Horizontal Merger Guidelines, this mode of analysis can serve as a useful indicator of whether a merger involving differentiated products is likely to result in unilateral anticompetitive effects. The Commission's investigation involved thousands of Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores with overlapping geographic markets.

A GUPPI analysis served as a useful initial screen to flag those markets where the transaction might likely harm competition and those where it might pose little or no risk to competition.

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As a general matter, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores with relatively low GUPPIs suggested that the transaction was unlikely to harm competition, unless the investigation uncovered specific reasons why the GUPPIs may have understated the potential for anticompetitive effects. Conversely, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores with relatively high GUPPIs suggested that the transaction was likely to harm competition, subject to evidence or analysis indicating that the GUPPIs may have overstated the potential for anticompetitive effects.

The Commission considered several other sources of evidence in assessing the transaction's likely competitive effects, including additional detail regarding the geographic proximity of the merging parties' stores relative to each other and to other retail stores, ordinary course of business documents and data supplied by Dollar Tree and Family Dollar, information from other market participants, and analyses conducted by various state attorneys general who were also investigating the transaction.

After considering all of this evidence, the Commission identified specific local markets where the acquisition would be likely to harm competition and arrived at the list of stores slated for divestiture. As explained above, they were used only as an initial screen to identify those markets where further investigation was warranted.


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  • The Commission then proceeded to consider the results of the GUPPI analysis in conjunction with numerous other sources of information. Our market-by-market review showed that the model of competition underlying the GUPPI analysis was largely consistent with other available evidence regarding the closeness of competition between the parties' stores in each local market. For example, stores with high GUPPIs were generally found in markets in which there were few or no other conveniently located discount general merchandise retail stores. For example, there were Family Dollar stores with relatively low GUPPIs in markets that were nevertheless price-zoned to Dollar Tree stores, which meant that if Dollar Tree stores were Start Printed Page removed as competition, then the prices of certain items at those Family Dollar stores would likely go up.

    The GUPPI analysis also was not sufficiently sensitive to differentiate between Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores that were in the same shopping plaza from those that were almost a mile away from each other. For these situations, we appropriately relied on other evidence to reach a judgment about the closeness of competition. The manner in which GUPPI analysis is used will vary depending on the factual circumstances, the available data, and the other evidence gathered during an investigation.

    Such conditions could produce a false negative implying that the merger is not likely to harm competition when in fact it is. In antitrust law, bright-line rules and presumptions rest on accumulated experience and economic learning that the transaction or conduct in question is likely or unlikely to harm competition. Accordingly, in any case where a GUPPI analysis is used, the Commission will consider the particular factual circumstances and evaluate other sources of quantitative and qualitative evidence.

    The Horizontal Merger Guidelines do not instruct otherwise. By direction of the Commission, Commissioner Wright not participating. I dissent in part from and concur in part with the Commission's decision.

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    I dissent in part because in 27 markets I disagree with the Commission's conclusion that there is reason to believe the proposed transaction violates the Clayton Act. The record evidence includes a quantitative measure of the value of diverted sales as well as various forms of qualitative evidence. The value of diverted sales is typically measured as the product of the diversion ratio between the merging parties' products—the diversion ratio between two products is the percentage of unit sales lost by one product when its price rises, that are captured by the second product—and the profit margin of the second product.

    In the markets where I depart from the Commission's decision the GUPPI is below 5 percent, indicating insignificant upward pricing pressure even before efficiencies or entry are taken into account, and weak incentives for unilateral price increases. In my view, the available quantitative and qualitative evidence are insufficient to support a reason to believe the proposed transaction will harm competition in these markets. I write separately to explain more fully the basis for my dissent in these markets. I also write to address an important merger policy issue implicated by today's decision—that is, whether the FTC should adopt a safe harbor in unilateral effects merger investigations by defining a GUPPI threshold below which it is presumed competitive harm is unlikely.

    The Merger Guidelines clearly contemplate such a safe harbor. Without more, one might reasonably conclude it is unclear whether the Merger Guidelines merely offer a truism about the relationship between the GUPPI and likely unilateral price effects or invite the agencies to take on the task of identifying a safe harbor of general applicability across cases. But there is more. This is unfortunate. Efficient resource allocation—expending agency resources on the transactions most likely to raise serious competitive concerns and quickly dispensing with those that do not—is one such goal.

    A second reason a safe harbor for proportionately small diversion might be desirable antitrust policy is to compensate for the sources of downward pricing pressure not measured by the GUPPI but expected with most transactions, including efficiencies, entry, or repositioning. Some have argued that—as a GUPPI attempts a rough measure of upward pricing pressure without a full blown analysis—a symmetrical approach would include a standard efficiencies deduction which would be applied to account for the downward pricing pressure from the marginal-cost efficiencies that can typically be expected to result from transactions.

    Yet a third reason a safe harbor might be desirable is to compensate the well-known feature of GUPPI-based scoring methods to predict harm for any positive diversion ratio—that is, even for distant substitutes—by distinguishing de minimis GUPPI levels from those that warrant additional scrutiny.

    Against these benefits of adopting a GUPPI-based safe harbor, the Commission must weigh the cost of reducing its own flexibility and prosecutorial discretion. This begs the question: How likely are mergers within the proposed safe harbor to be anticompetitive?

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    The benefits of this flexibility are proportional to the probability that the Commission's economic analysis leads them to conclude that mergers with a GUPPI of less than 5 percent are anticompetitive. I am not aware of any transactions since Start Printed Page the Merger Guidelines were adopted other than the two already mentioned that meet these criteria. The domain in which flexibility would be reduced with adoption of a reasonable safe harbor is small and the costs of doing so correspondingly low. This objection to safe harbors and bright-line rules and presumptions is both conceptually misguided and is in significant tension with antitrust doctrine and agency practice.

    Merger analysis is, of course, inherently fact specific. One can accept that reality, as well as the reality that evidence is both imperfect and can be costly to obtain, and yet still conclude that the optimal legal test from a consumer welfare perspective is a rule rather than a standard. This is a basic insight of decision theory, which provides a lens through which economists and legal scholars have long evaluated antitrust legal rules, burdens, and presumptions.

    The relevant question is not which legal rule drives false positives or false negatives to zero, but rather which legal rule minimizes the sum of the welfare costs associated with false negatives, false positives, and the costs of obtaining evidence and otherwise administering the law.

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    Existing antitrust law regularly embraces bright-line rules and presumptions—rejecting the flexibility of a case-by-case standard taking full account of facts that vary across industries and firms. A simple example is the application of per se rules in price-fixing cases.

    The sheer number of stores owned and operated by the parties rendered individualized, in-depth analysis of the competitive nuances of each and every market difficult, if not impossible, to conduct. GUPPI calculations provided an efficient and workable alternative to identifying the small fraction of markets in which the transaction may be anticompetitive.

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    This was a tremendous amount of work and I want to commend staff on taking this approach. About half of the stores divested as part of the Commission's Order were identified through this process. What about the other stores? The number of stores with GUPPIs exceeding the identified threshold that, after evaluation in conjunction with the qualitative and other evidence described by the Commission, were not slated for divestiture is nearly zero. This outcome is indistinguishable from the application of a presumption of competitive harm.

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    The additional stores with GUPPIs below the threshold that were then identified for divestiture based upon additional qualitative factors included a significant number of stores with GUPPIs below 5 percent. The ratio of stores falling below the GUPPI threshold but deemed problematic after further qualitative evidence is taken into account to stores with GUPPIs above the threshold but deemed not to raise competitive problems after qualitative evidence is accounted for is unusual and remarkably high.

    It is difficult to conceive of a distribution of qualitative and other evidence occurring in real-world markets that would result in this ratio. Qualitative evidence should not be a one-way ratchet confirming the Commission's conclusion of likely anticompetitive effects when GUPPIs are high and providing an independent basis for the same conclusion when GUPPIs are low.

    I applaud the FTC for taking important initial steps in applying more sophisticated economic tools in conducting merger analysis where the data are available to do so. Scoring metrics for evaluating incentives for unilateral price increases are no doubt a significant improvement over simply counting the number of firms in markets pre- and post-transaction.